India: Arnab remnant weakens further; separate Andaman advice
IMD records a new location and stage for the remnant. The Andaman low remains a separate system with sea-area advice.
Updated 30.10.2026 · 13:02, Athens time — What changed
IMD’s latest Tropical Weather Outlook, issued at 08:00 UTC — 10:00 Athens on 30 October, records at 03:00 UTC — 05:00 Athens further weakening of the Arnab remnant from a well-marked low-pressure area to a low-pressure area, now over northern Chhattisgarh and adjoining eastern Madhya Pradesh.
The separate Andaman system remains a low. Forecast intensification into a depression is not presented as already observed. The Outlook is guidance, not a general cancellation of the fishing advice in Special Message BOB/09/2026, issued later at 10:30 Athens and retaining separate sea-area periods.
Previous updates — history
Updated 30.10.2026 · 12:07, Athens time — What changed
IMD issued Special Message 1, BOB/09/2026, at 14:00 India — 10:30 Athens on 30 October 2026 for the separate low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea. The 08:30 in the filename is the observation time, not issuance: at 08:30 India — 05:00 Athens, the low lay over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Concentration into a depression around 31 October, followed by movement towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, remain forecasts. The message does not establish an already formed new cyclone or certain landfall. This system is distinct from the weakened Arnab remnant in the history below.
Sea areas and periods
For the Andaman Sea and adjoining islands on 30–31 October, IMD forecasts winds of 35–45 km/h gusting to 55 and rough seas. For parts of the southeast/eastcentral and southwest/westcentral Bay, it forecasts later strengthening, reaching 45–55 km/h gusting to 65 on different days; these are not already observed everywhere.
- Andaman Sea and along/off the Andaman and Nicobar Islands: fishermen advised not to venture out through 31 October.
- Southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal: 31 October to 1 November.
- Westcentral and southwest Bay of Bengal: 1–3 November.
These are the source’s local dates without exact expiry times, not a single current ban throughout the Bay. The next special message is scheduled for 12:30 India — 09:00 Athens on 31 October. The separate northern Bihar rain warning for 30 October comes from National Bulletin 34 of 29 October; it is not a new observation in today’s special message.
Previous updates — history
Updated 29.10.2026 · 18:00, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 34, issued at 21:00 India time — 17:30 Athens on 29 October 2026, confirms that the Arnab remnant weakened from a depression into a well-marked low-pressure area over central Chhattisgarh and adjoining Odisha. The change was observed at 17:30 India time — 14:00 Athens; it is no longer merely forecast.
Further weakening within the next 24 hours remains forecast. IMD calls this its last special update on this remnant, while explicitly saying regular weather updates will continue. This is not a general all-clear.
Rain and the separate Andaman system
Heavy to very heavy rain warnings remain for parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh on 29 October, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall possible in northern Chhattisgarh. A corresponding warning covers northern Bihar on 30 October. Other areas have individual warnings; these do not establish widespread flooding everywhere.
The separate low over the south Andaman Sea remains a low in the 17:30 India observation. Development into a depression around 31 October and subsequent movement towards Andhra Pradesh are forecasts, not an already confirmed cyclone or a certain coastal approach.
- Andaman Sea and along/off the Andaman–Nicobar Islands: fishermen should not venture out through 31 October.
- Southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal: from 31 October to 1 November.
- West-central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal: from 1 to 3 November.
These are the source’s local dates, with no exact closing hour. The sea areas have different periods; there is no single restriction across the whole Bay through 3 November.
Previous updates — history
Updated 29.10.2026 · 12:11, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 33 was issued at 14:30 India — 11:00 Athens on 29 October 2026. At the latest observation, 11:30 India — 08:00 Athens, Arnab’s remnant remained a depression over central Chhattisgarh and adjoining Odisha, near 20.2°N and 81.7°E. Winds decreased to 40–50 km/h, gusting to 60, from 45–55 with gusts of 65 in the previous observation.
Weakening into a well-marked low on the evening of 29 October remains a forecast, not an already observed change. Rain warnings remain for parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh on 29 October and northern Bihar on 30 October, with differing intensities and dates for other areas.
Fishing advice for the northwest Bay of Bengal and along/off West Bengal runs until the afternoon of 29 October, India time; the action section also mentions Odisha’s coast. No exact expiry hour or general all-clear is established.
The separate south Andaman Sea low remained a low in the latest observation. IMD forecasts a depression around 31 October and further movement towards Andhra Pradesh over the following two days; this is not an already confirmed new cyclone or certain coastal arrival. Advice against fishing remains for the Andaman Sea and along/off Andaman–Nicobar through 31 October, and the southeast Bay of Bengal on 31 October, using local dates without an exact expiry hour.
Previous updates — history
Updated 29.10.2026 · 11:10, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 32 of 29 October 2026, issued at 12:30 India — 09:00 Athens, adds recorded exceptional rainfall and an updated position for Arnab’s remnant. In the 24 hours ending at 08:30 India — 05:00 Athens, it reports 546 mm at Patrapur and 503 mm at Sorada in Odisha. These are measurements at specific locations, not uniform rainfall across the state.
At the 08:30 India observation, the system remained a Depression near 19.4°N and 81.9°E, about 40 km north-northwest of Jagdalpur. Winds were 45–55 km/h, gusting to 65. Weakening into a well-marked low-pressure area on the evening of 29 October remains a forecast.
The bulletin retains heavy to extremely heavy rain warnings for parts of Odisha and Chhattisgarh on 29 October and northern Bihar on 30 October, with different intensities and dates for other areas. Advice against fishing in the northwest Bay of Bengal and along/off West Bengal extends until the afternoon of 29 October, India time; the action section also mentions Odisha’s coast. No exact expiry hour is given, and no general all-clear can be inferred.
The separate low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea remained a low in the same observation; strengthening is forecast. Fishing advice covers the Andaman Sea and along/off the Andaman–Nicobar Islands through 31 October, and the southeast Bay of Bengal on 31 October, using the source’s local dates without an exact expiry hour.
Previous updates — history
Updated 29.10.2026 · 08:00, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 31, dated 29 October 2026, confirms that the remnant of Arnab weakened from a deep depression into a Depression. The full text was issued at 10:00 India — 06:30 Athens; the 05:30 time in the filename refers to the analysis and does not replace the issue time.
At 05:30 India — 02:00 Athens, the centre was over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining south Odisha, near 19.0°N and 81.9°E, about 20 km west of Jagdalpur. Winds were 45–55 km/h, gusting to 65. Weakening into a well-marked low-pressure area around the evening of 29 October remains a forecast.
Warnings that remain
For 29 October, warnings of heavy or very heavy rain continue in parts of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh. Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal–Sikkim are also covered on 29–30 October; rain is forecast for parts of Uttar Pradesh on 31 October as well. Intensities differ by area; no blanket flooding is established.
The bulletin retains advice against fishing in the northwest Bay of Bengal and along/off West Bengal coasts until noon India on 29 October — 08:30 Athens. Its suggested actions also mention the Odisha coast. Weakening does not generally lift advice.
A separate Andaman Sea system
The same bulletin reports a different low-pressure area over the south Andaman Sea, formed at 05:30 India on 29 October. Strengthening over the next two days is forecast, rather than an already confirmed new depression. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Andaman Sea and along/off the Andaman–Nicobar Islands through 31 October, or into the southeast Bay of Bengal on 31 October, using the source’s local dates. No exact expiry hour is given for that advice.
Previous updates — history
Updated 29.10.2026 · 01:06, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 30 confirms that Arnab weakened into a Deep Depression. The full text was issued at 03:00 India on 29 October — 23:30 Athens on 28 October, although the filename refers to an earlier time.
Its analysis for 23:30 India on 28 October — 20:00 Athens places the system over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha, south Chhattisgarh and northeast Telangana, with winds of 50–60 km/h, gusting to 70. Further weakening into a depression in the morning and a well-marked low-pressure area in the evening of 29 October is a forecast, not an already confirmed stage.
Advice that continues
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the westcentral Bay of Bengal and along/off Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts, or the northwest Bay and along/off West Bengal coasts, through noon India on 29 October — 08:30 Athens.
For 29 October IMD warns of heavy to very heavy rain in parts of north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh. Rain warnings for Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal–Sikkim also cover 29–30 October, using the source’s local dates. Exact areas and intensities differ by zone; no blanket flooding is asserted. Weakening does not generally lift warnings.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 23:58, Athens time — What changed
The official IMD feed carries a newer New Delhi TCAC aviation advisory, number 15, timestamped 28 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC — 20:00 Athens. Its current analysis gives maximum wind of 30 knots, central pressure of 998 hPa and a weakening trend.
The aviation product labels the system NONAME. That code is not used to claim that all impacts of Arnab have ended. The bulletin’s values are IMD analysis, not wind measurements for every coastal location.
Its wind forecasts for six, twelve and eighteen hours ahead are not presented as already observed outcomes. NEXT MSG: NOMSG refers to this aviation advisory and does not constitute a general lifting of fishing advice or reopening of ports. National Bulletin 29’s separate fishing-advice periods remain as published below, without extension by the TCAC product.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 21:07, Athens time — What changed
IMD Bulletin 29’s specific fishing-advice period for the southwest Bay of Bengal and north Tamil Nadu–Puducherry coasts ended at Indian midnight on 28 October, or 20:30 Athens on 28 October. It is no longer shown here as an active period. That expiry does not establish general marine safety or reopening of ports.
The same bulletin’s advice not to venture into the westcentral Bay and Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts and the northwest Bay and West Bengal coasts remains through noon India on 29 October — 08:30 Athens. No new intensity observation is confirmed, and the earlier weakening forecast is not treated as an observed outcome.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 20:06, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 29 lists winds of 65–75 km/h, gusting to 85, for 20:30 IST — 17:00 Athens on 28 October, compared with 80–90 km/h and gusts of 100 in the previous reference period. Arnab remains classified as a cyclonic storm. Further weakening into a deep depression remains a forecast, not confirmation that it has already occurred.
The PDF internally gives an issue time of 23:00 IST — 19:30 Athens, while its filename says 20:30 IST. The issue time is distinguished from the table’s reference time.
Updated fishing-advice periods
- Westcentral Bay of Bengal and Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts: do not venture out until noon India on 29 October — 08:30 Athens.
- Northwest Bay and West Bengal coasts: until noon India on 29 October — 08:30 Athens.
- Southwest Bay and north Tamil Nadu–Puducherry coasts: until Indian midnight on 28 October — 20:30 Athens on 28 October.
Warnings for heavy rain and dangerous seas remain. A surge of 0.5–1 metre above astronomical tide over the bulletin’s next six hours is a forecast for low-lying Andhra Pradesh, not a measurement. Lower intensity does not constitute a general lifting of advice or confirmation that ports have reopened.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 18:10, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 28 confirms that Arnab has weakened to a cyclonic storm. Its table for 17:30 IST — 14:00 Athens on 28 October lists winds of 80–90 km/h, gusting to 100. Further weakening to a deep depression by Indian midnight, approximately 20:30 Athens on 28 October, remains a forecast.
The PDF itself states an issue time of 20:30 IST — 17:00 Athens, although its filename says 17:30 IST. The issue time and table reference time are kept separate. A storm surge of 0.5–1 metre above astronomical tide is forecast for the bulletin’s next six hours in low-lying Andhra Pradesh. This is not a measured water level.
Fishing advice remains: do not venture into the westcentral Bay and Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts on 28 October; northwest Bay and West Bengal coasts on 28–29 October; southwest Bay and north Tamil Nadu–Puducherry coasts through 28 October. No exact end times are given. Weakening does not lift warnings for rain and dangerous seas.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 11:01, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 25, issued at 12:00 IST on 28 October (08:30 Athens time), confirms that Arnab’s crossing of the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast was completed by 08:00 IST, or 04:30 Athens time, with its central region entirely inland. This supersedes earlier bulletins describing landfall as ongoing.
The system weakened into a Severe Cyclonic Storm. The table for 08:30 IST, or 05:00 Athens time, lists winds of 110–120 km/h, gusting to 130. That timestamp refers to the bulletin’s observation, not the time of reading. Further weakening remains a forecast, rather than confirmation that it has already occurred.
Updated advice to fishers
The bulletin advises against venturing into the westcentral Bay of Bengal and along or off Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts on 28 October; the northwest Bay and West Bengal coasts on 28–29 October; and the southwest Bay and north Tamil Nadu–Puducherry coasts through 28 October. Exact expiry times are not specified. The previous blanket advice through 29 October for Andhra Pradesh–Odisha is not carried forward as the latest guidance.
Separate validity periods
The coastal bulletin issued at 10:24 IST covered the period ending at 11:00 Athens time on 28 October and is now retained in the history. Its time window ending does not establish that port signals have been withdrawn or danger has ended. The separate sea-area bulletin issued at 08:24 IST states validity through 17:00 Athens time; the updated summary follows National Bulletin 25.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 07:04, Athens time — What changed
The new IMD coastal bulletin, issued at 10:24 IST on 28 October (06:54 Athens time), reports that great danger port signal VIII was replaced with X at Machilipatnam. Signal X remains at Kakinada, IX at Visakhapatnam, Gangavaram and Bheemunipatnam, and VIII at Nizampatnam.
The new coastal bulletin is valid 03:00–09:00 UTC on 28 October, or 05:00–11:00 Athens time. It forecasts a surge 1–1.5 metres above astronomical tide, potentially inundating low-lying Andhra Pradesh areas during the crossing, consistent with National Bulletin 24. This is not a recorded water level.
For both the north and south Andhra Pradesh coasts it forecasts winds of 65–70 knots, gusting to 75, becoming 45–50, gusting to 55, after landfall. That weakening is a conditional forecast, rather than confirmation that it has already happened.
The text reports interaction with land, but its stated position refers to 00:00 UTC (02:00 Athens time). We do not present it as the position at the time of reading or infer completed landfall. The separate sea-area bulletin remains valid until 17:00 Athens time on 28 October, while advice to fishers continues through 29 October, without an exact expiry time.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 06:01, Athens time — What changed
IMD National Bulletin 24, issued at 08:45 IST on 28 October (05:15 Athens time), forecasts a storm surge 1–1.5 metres above astronomical tide, potentially inundating low-lying areas of Andhra Pradesh during the cyclone’s crossing. This differs from the previous warning’s 1.5–2.5 metres.
Different wind references
The new national bulletin’s text retains a coastal-crossing forecast of 125–135 km/h, gusting to 150. Its table lists 115–125, gusting to 135, for 05:30 IST. The separate sea-area bulletin issued at 08:24 IST gives 115–125, gusting to 140. These references are not merged into one figure, and none is presented as a current on-site measurement.
The sea-area bulletin is valid until 17:00 Athens time on 28 October. The earlier coastal bulletin, ending at 11:00, remains separate; its previous surge figures are recorded in the history below. Advice to fishers for the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coast remains through 29 October, without an exact expiry time.
Previous updates — history
Updated 28.10.2026 · 05:07, Athens time — What changed
IMD’s latest sea-area bulletin, issued at 08:24 IST on 28 October (04:54 Athens time), is valid from 03:00 to 15:00 UTC on 28 October, or 05:00–17:00 Athens time.
For the crossing of the Andhra Pradesh–Yanam coast, close to south of Yanam, it forecasts winds of 115–125 km/h, gusting to 140, compared with 125–135 and 150 respectively in the previous update. These remain forecasts for the crossing, rather than a measured assessment.
The bulletin says the system is interacting with land. Its stated position relates to 05:30 IST (02:00 Athens time), rather than the time of reading. It does not confirm that the crossing is complete.
The new validity period applies to the sea-area bulletin. It does not automatically extend the separate coastal bulletin, valid until 11:00 Athens time, or change advice to fishers through 29 October.
Previous update — 28.10.2026 · 04:07
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) warns of dangerous sea conditions along the Andhra Pradesh coast because of Cyclone Arnab. Its coastal bulletin dated 28 October covers 21:00 UTC on 27 October to 09:00 UTC on 28 October, ending at 11:00 Wednesday, Athens time.
Areas and risk
The bulletin forecasts a storm surge 1.5–2.5 metres above astronomical tide, potentially inundating low-lying areas. It highlights Kakinada and Yanam, with a forecast surge of 2–3.5 metres along the Godavari river mouth.
For the system’s coastal crossing, IMD forecast winds of 125–135 km/h, gusting to 150 km/h. These are bulletin forecast values, rather than on-site measurements or an assessment of damage.
Advice to fishers
National Bulletin 22 advises fishers not to venture into the westcentral Bay of Bengal or along and off the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coasts until 29 October, without specifying an expiry time. The warnings do not establish a casualty figure or the number of completed evacuations.
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